Hunger is a key humanitarian condition that must be considered when assessing the impacts, particularly the negative effects, on the food system and markets. We have developed future estimates of the population at risk of hunger for assessing agriculture and land systems in studies related to climate change and other global environment.

Integrated assessments of the interaction between climate change and agricultural and economic systems help us understand climate change impacts on food supply, but these models often miss critical social factors that are needed to understand the future of food security.

Among the various indicators that describe the state of the food system, hunger is the most severe condition that must be considered when assessing the impacts of climate change and its mitigation efforts, particularly the negative effects, on the food system and markets. In this study, we have developed baseline estimates of the future population at risk of hunger for assessing agriculture and land systems in studies related to climate change and other global environmental issues. Baseline here refers to scenarios that do not yet incorporate climate and its mitigation impacts.

Using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM/CGE), we develop five SSP-based scenarios to assess future hunger risk from 2005 to 2100, using of a number of elements: population, GDP, inequality of food distribution among households within a country, demographic structure, crop yields, irrigation, and international trade. Hunger risks are projected to decline in SSPs 1, 2, and 5 along with economic growth but remain significant in SSPs 3 and 4 due to persistent inequalities and low economic growth in developing regions. Cropland and pasture expansion and crop price increases will be more pronounced in scenarios with higher population growth and lower land productivity (e.g., SSP3).

This may indicate that the secure access to food markets and increased food consumption for lower-income households that come with better domestic income distribution will be effective in reducing hunger risk. Our research underscores the need for holistic approaches in climate impact assessments, emphasizing socioeconomic factors alongside traditional climate and agricultural models. Even in a hypothetical world without climate change, development trajectories drastically define the future of hunger. For follow up studies that integrate impacts of climate change and its mitigation in projections of food security, we suggest to refer to Hasegawa (2018, 2021) and Fujimori (2019).

References